Recently we started an experiment with NHL Sharp Parlay Bets that included goals in the first 10 minutes of any game. The concept seemed achievable as we started to notice that a lot of games get goals in the first 10 minutes, but the concept wasn’t consistent enough, and luckily, someone in our Discord couldn’t find this bet on Draft Kings so they did something a little different: – over 0.5 goals in the 1st period.
I started looking at the scoring results over the last couple weeks and was floored to see these kind of numbers:
| Date | # of Games | Wins | Losses | Approx ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-11 | 11 | 10 | 1 | +200 |
| 11-10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | +125 |
| 11-09 | 11 | 11 | 0 | +200 |
| 11-08 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -169 |
| 11-07 | 10 | 10 | 0 | +200 |
| 11-06 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -158 |
| 11-05 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -294 |
| 11-04 | 14 | 13 | 1 | +256 |
| 11-03 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -294 |
| 11-02 | 12 | 11 | 1 | +200 |
| 11-01 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -158 |
| 10-31 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -294 |
| 10-30 | 9 | 8 | 1 | +185 |
| 10-29 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -158 |
| 10-28 | 9 | 9 | 0 | +185 |
If you set just a few restraints on your betting based on these numbers above, you would probably bet anything with a 6 game slate or higher and leave everything else alone.
If you bet the odds to make $100 per bet, you’d have $1,184 in wins and $585 in losses, leaving you with a profit of $599 during this time period.
But I think we can do better, and eliminate the variance just a bit.
Whenever you see a slate of over, say, 7 total NHL games….let’s just find the best 4 or 5 games to go over 0.5 goals in the first period. One criteria you could use, is the top power play teams. If you have a 7 game slate, and you’re trying to get your odds to +100, you’ll need 5 games for your bet slip. Leave out the games that have two really bad teams going against each other. What’s bad? Maybe near last place? Maybe near the bottom in Goals For in the league? Maybe at the bottom of the Power Play Rankings? You decide what is most important, and as the experiment progresses, we will see trends that will helps us a pick the right games.
For now, I’m sticking to slates of 5, even if there is a slate with 12 games on the board. I might even take a 12 game slate and divide it into three, four-game bets at -130 each.
To see today’s NHL Sharp Parlay, join the Maxximus Sports Discord! Good Luck Today!
