During the course of hanging out in the Maxximus Sports Discord yesterday, we tried our hands at +10,000 bet where all 10 games on the NHL slate would have their first goal scored within the first 10 minutes. I slapped down $25, hoping to win $2,500 and of course the bet lost, but not by much. 8 out of 10 of those teams came through. So now I have to figure out how to pick winners for this bet.
First you have to look at the two games that didn’t hit and find out what they have in common:
Buffalo Sabres (GFA 3.25, GAA 3.1) @ Carolina Hurricanes (GF 3.5, GA3.5)
Pittsburgh Penguins (GFA 3.6, GAA 3.1) @ Colorado Avalanche (GF 3.2, GA 2.8)
Generally, teams with GFA and GAA over 3.5, usually would be designated Team Totals o3.5 in our NHL Sharp Betting Spreadsheet. But figuring who might score in the 1st 10 minutes, seems to have less to do with the amount of goals scored “for” or “against” a team, than what Power Play Rankings mean to this bet.
Without naming the teams that played yesterday, or the Goals “for” or “against” we can see a clear pattern as to who is most likely to score a goal in the 1st 10 minutes of an NHL hockey game.
The highlighted Power Play Ranked Team below is the team that scored within the 1st 10 minutes of their game yesterday:
- 2nd @ 14th
- 25th at 23rd
- 5th @ 4th
- 24th @ 32nd
- 8th @ 10th
- 12th @ 20th
- 1st @ 17th
- 29th @ 19th
- 27th @ 7th (No goal scored in 1st 10 minutes)
- 16th @ 15th (No goal scored in 1st 10 minutes)
This is just one small sample on one single slate, but so far, we can see that top 15 power play teams tend to score within the first 10 minutes of the game.
The smart thing to do here to continue to collect data and find more meaningful patterns to bet on. For instance, if we test the theory that top 15 power play teams tend to score in the 1st 10 minutes of a game, who are they likely to do it against? Does it even matter?
If we were to have a full slate tonight (11/8/2023) I would say, lets bet the top 15 on straight bets. That is, single game bets, no parlays. The great thing about single bets using this 10 minute method is that the odds are pretty decent per single game bet (hovering around -140 to -160)
But I would also bet two-team parlays as well, because, if the theory is even remotely correct, we would expect 6 out of 10 teams to hit when say using the top 19 power play leaders where the average two-team bet in this category would be around +157.
So I bet you’re wondering about tonight’s NHL slate by now. Let’s take a look:
Ottawa Senators (Power Play Rank: 13th) @ Toronto Maple Leafs (Power Play Rank: 6th) (-176)
Florida Panthers (Power Play Rank: 26th) @ Washington Capitals (Power Play Rank: 31st) (-142)
LA Kings (Power Play Rank: 18th) @ Las Vegas Golden Knights (Power Play Rank: 11th) (-156)
Based on what we saw yesterday, we’d have to leave the Capitals game out of this and combine the Ottawa game with the LA Kings game tonight for a +157 bet.
That’s the play on this experimental bet tonight. Special shout out to TikTok’s @eliasdejesus08 for bringing this one to the Maxximus Sports Discord for experimentation!
