We started a ladder challenge last week and won the first bet. Since then we’ve been waiting on a larger slate of hockey to pop up before we rolled the cash over and tried to double up again. Tonight is that night! But instead of just posting the bet inside the discord, I thought I would drop the actual process of coming up with the bet, so you can use this spreasheet when you want and get the best possible results.
Step 1 – Download this MS Excel spreadsheet first. Open it up and make sure the data is as up-to-date as possible. You’ll have to look at the current standings and look at the games played column and see if they match up or not. It’s no big deal if this data is 3 or 4 days old, but if you’re seeing the Ducks last entry for games played is like 14 and the standings show them at 25 games played, it’s time to update your spreadsheet.
Step 2 – Once your spreadsheet is up-to-date, lets write down on a piece of paper all the matchups for the day. We should have at least 10 or so to choose from so we aren’t forced to take things and “make them work”. Here’s the entire 11/7/2023 slate, and I’m listing them here in an order we can get through quickly.
- Lightning (Y, Y) @ Canadiens (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1800
- Sabres (Y, Y) @ Hurricanes (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1600
- Penguins (Y, Y)@ Ducks (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1600
- Devils (Y, Y) @ Avalanche (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1100
- Flyers (Y, Y) @ Sharks (N, Y) 03.5 = -1400
- Wild (Y, Y) @ Islanders (N, N)
- Red Wings (Y, Y) @ Rangers (Y, N)
- Jets (Y, Y) @ Blues (N, N)
- Kraken (N, Y) @ Coyotes (Y, N)
- Predators (N, N) @ Flames (Y, N)
Where you see “Team Name” (Y, Y) – the first “Y” indicates the team has a “Goals For” average of 3.0 or higher. The second “Y” indicates they have a “Goals Against” average of 3.0 or higher. When we see one team with 2 “Y’s” we are half way home to getting our first leg set up in an NHL Sharp Parlay. We want a team like that (with 2 Y’s) to play a team just like that (with 2 Y’s). This indicates average goalies on both sides of the puck as well as the actual offensive ability to score goals and contribute to winning one of our NHL Sharp Parlay methods.
The first Leg method I always look for are games to go over an alternate total of 3.5. You should be able to find this on Bet MGM or Fan Duel (not sure about the others). When you combine the top 4 games into a parlay of o3.5 for each of the four games you get an odds rating of -325 (this isn’t close enough to our target area of -110 to -135 to place the bet just yet), so we need to find some more legs to add to this bet.
The next type of matchup we should start looking for are teams with a (Y, Y) and their opponent at a (N, Y). The (N, Y) indicates the team gives up over 3.0 goals per game, but doesn’t score 3 goals per game on average. We have that kind of matchup with the Flyers and Sharks tonight. Remember the Sharks have yet to win a game this season and currently stand at 0-11-1. They have lost their last two games 10-1 and 10-2. Both times, Mackenzie Blackwood has come in to relieve the starting goalie only to give up 4 goals himself in the first game, and 6 goals in the second game. He’s terrible. The Sharks are terrible, this is good for us. Even if the Sharks magically make a goal or two tonight, this should be a win for the Flyers.
So let’s see how that game can turn into a leg. First, we definitely will go o3.5 goals in that game which brings our bet up to an odds point of -250. Still, this isn’t good enough to bet. I’m 99% sure this game will be won by the Flyers, but just in case the hockey gods try to give the Sharks their first win, lets also add Flyers +2.5 (-1000). This brings the bet odds up to -160 which isn’t bad, but using a boost without added another leg is better than adding more legs. So FanDuel gave me a 30% profit boost on Single Game Parlays (SGP), which will bring out bet from -160 to -125.
All the other games listed south of the Flyers vs Sharks are NOT worth betting, since most of those games involve N’s on either side of the puck. Indicating the team doesn’t score enough, or doesn’t give up enough goals to be considered for an o3.5 leg.
- Lightning (Y, Y) @ Canadiens (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1800
- Sabres (Y, Y) @ Hurricanes (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1600
- Penguins (Y, Y)@ Ducks (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1600
- Devils (Y, Y) @ Avalanche (Y, Y) o3.5 = -1100
- Flyers (Y, Y) @ Sharks (N, Y) 03.5 = -1400
- Wild (Y, Y) @ Islanders (N, N)
- Red Wings (Y, Y) @ Rangers (Y, N)
- Jets (Y, Y) @ Blues (N, N)
- Kraken (N, Y) @ Coyotes (Y, N)
- Predators (N, N) @ Flames (Y, N)
The finished bet should look something close to this, and typically hits at a 62% win rate or better. Good luck tonight!
Download the latest spreadsheet here (Updated 11/7/2023)
