The Kansas City Chiefs are looking to beat the Denver Broncos for the 16th time in a row this Thursday Night at Arrowhead Stadium, in front of 76,000+ screaming fans. Live coverage begins on Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video.
While that might happen, “If I were a betting man”…and I am, I would think very seriously about taking the Broncos +12.5 (-135)
This is an ALTERNATE SPREAD and I’m going this direction for the following reasons:
- With a short week for the Chiefs, Kelce is likely to miss this game with an ankle sprain.
- Chiefs have kept it close with everyone but the Bears this season. No huge blowouts found here!
- The Broncos are not as bad as their 50 point loss to the Dolphins indicates – they’ve kept it within 10 points in 4 out of 5 games.
- The Chiefs have beat the Broncos the last 15 meetings in a row – and out of those 15, only 6 times have we seen the Broncos beat by more than 13 points. 3 of those losses were by 20 or more but those teams on both sides of the ball are very different than they are today. (Think Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Tyreek Hill and many more duds and studs).
- Betting public is high on Broncos spread, even at +10.5
- Heavy bets 72% coming in on the Under (possibly indicating a close game)
The Chiefs may ultimately win this game but I have a sneaking suspicion they won’t cover -12.5 which currently sits at -136 on FanDuel.
This is your first official pick of Week 6!
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