Here’s the quickest explanation of the 80-20 method in horse betting:
- Find a horse you’re very sure will finish AT LEAST in 3rd place….doesn’t always have to be the favorite.
- Now, for the sake of math, you have a $100 bill. You place $20 on that horse to win. (20%)
- Now you take your $80 and put it on him to show (pays out on a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place win). (80%)
Obviously the best thing that can happen here is that your horse pulls off a win and you win the 20% stake for the win and the 80% stake for the win, place or show bet.
I have some of my own rules that I’ve added to this 80-20 method of betting horses, but for now, lets look at what that kind of bet might look like:
- $20 on “Mister Ed” at 3/1 odds (+300) to WIN the race = $74. (2nd and 3rd do NOT pay out)
- $80 on “Mister Ed” at 3/1 odds (+300) to WIN, PLACE, or SHOW = $152 – $200
You can see here if your horse just finishes 2nd or 3rd, your first bet loses (-$20) and your second bet wins around $175 (the winning amount depends on the number of bets at the track at start time).
A Win, Place, or Show would win you approximately $175 and of course, your original risk is subtracted and you’re left with $75 in profit from that race.
However, if your horse comes in FIRST you win BOTH bets and are looking at approximately $160 in profit!
How To Win MORE OFTEN with the 80-20 Method
Here’s a few rules I impose on myself when betting horses and this 80-20 method:
- Don’t bet on harness racing. The carts are huge and bulky and there’s no weight limits for jockeys so you will see riders in excess of 100-120 lbs which is the standard jockey size in horse racing…bottom line, too much room for error.
- Don’t bet overseas tracks. Many overseas tracks don’t allow “Win, Place, Show” bets. Stay away!
- Bet Thoroughbred race horses where the field is 10 horses or LESS. Ideally the less horses the better. (Reduce variance).
- FanDuel gives us great quick reference tools to gauge the speed of the horse as well as a tack log that shows us how the horse did on previous races as it pertains to track types (dry, fast, wet, sloppy), as well as how they finish based on the length of the race (6, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, etc Furlongs).
- I like shorter races as the speed and win percentages tend to be more “true”.
- I prefer to bet races on fast dirt, never grass, never steeplechase….never harness… and 10 horses or less.
What’s the IDEAL horse for a 80-20 bet?
The following graphics show you Mahoning Valley, Race #4 on 3/4/2024
I wrote down all the vital stats on a piece of paper before this race started and put it into a table for you to look at here:
| ODDS | Horse Name | Speed | Top 3 | Win Prob % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/1 | Flawless Cat | 62 | 29% | 19% |
| 3/2 | Plain or Peanut | 59 | 33% | 35% |
| 3/1 | LetLaneOutlaw | 59 | 20% | 31% |
| 6/1 | Sir Mason | 49 | 30% | 8% |
| 9/1 | Moon Over Dubai | 52 | 29% | 5% |
| 23/1 | Orleans Storm | 38 | 29% | 3% |
Just before race time, “Plain or Peanut” was scratched from the race and we were left with 5 horses to choose our 80-20 bet from.
Truth be told, my first pick WAS “Plain or Peanut” because of her speed, her average finishing percentage in the top 3, and of course the Win Probability percentage. The Win Probability Percentage is a proprietary win percentage rate calculated by horse racing experts for every horse in every race. It’s based on their expected odds when the race starts. If a horse in a race, can’t run (scratches), this percentage will be updated (and it was).
This left me with two clear favorites to choose from “Flawless Cat” or “LetLaneOutlaw”. The odds on the board changes after the scratch, and showed the clear favorite among bettors was now the “LetLaneOutlaw” horse, as her odds moved to even money at 1/1 odds (+100 American Odds).
It was this line movement and the overall “Win Probablity %” that made me pick this horse, and I’m glad I did. She won by about 8 lengths. It’s more about ODDS and WIN PROBABILITY than it is about speed. So please don’t get caught up too much in the speed column of these horses. “Flawless Cat” was the fastest horse documented in this one and she came in 4th out of 5 horses.
If you follow this betting method and the rules set forth, you’ll start to see more and more wins in your horse racing tickets. This isn’t the only method to bet the horses, but the one I like the most.
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