Over the years I have found a way to bet on sports a lot of different ways. For instance, in hockey, it’s always been over total goals per game for me. Often, I’ll take alt game totals and slide them down to achievable limits and then string several games together in order to get a more favorable result. In the NBA, I’ve had a lot of luck this year doing player props with the aid of an incredible app called Props.Cash. The 2024 Major League Baseball season starts up tomorrow and it’s had me thinking about methods we used last year and maybe some new ones that will be used this year.
First 5 Innings Explained
The first 5 innings bet is one of the most important bets to understand when laying money in baseball. The concept is easy enough, pick the team you think is going to be leading at the end of 5 innings. Most lines are set at -0.5 for either team to win this bet. You will see other lines, some that might be -1.5 for the favorite, which is a pretty good indicator that that team might even win a full game bet based on that line.
The reason I bet the “First 5” is because of the pitchers, not the team. In baseball, a great pitcher will go 5 innings and then get pulled to rest for his next start. Leaving the team (and you) to deal with whatever the bullpen has to offer. Many teams have a few great starting pitchers, but only a few teams have a great bullpen that close games. So if you must bet full games, it is important to watch the “bullpen ERA” stat. It’s pretty easy to find this stat, I just did a quick google search and found these bullpen stats from the 2022 season on Covers.com.
So what is the ideal team to pick in a first 5 wager? To figure that out, you’ll need some data behind you. So really, making a bet in the first week or two is the riskiest of the season. Who knows what will happen without some baseline data? I like to wait until at least week 3 before I start wagering 6 to 10 games per day in MLB. This way we’ve seen a few starts from almost everyone and we can make better decisions on who has the hot arms, and the hot bats!
Speaking of hot bats, you cannot, I repeat, YOU…CAN….NOT…make a single bet in baseball without looking at and noticing the trends in a stat called xwOBA. Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) is formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.
xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation. Hitters, and likewise pitchers, are able to influence exit velocity and launch angle but have no control over what happens to a batted ball once it is put into play.
For instance, Marcell Ozuna produced a .327 wOBA in 2018. But based on the quality of his contact, his xwOBA was .359. A xwOBA of .359 is VERY good, and when the Baseball Savant starts producing data on it’s website, you’ll see with heat sensor statistics which players are hot and which are cold based on this stat.
Not many websites track this data, but luckily, the MLB has provided us with a product called “Baseball Savant”. When games start, you will see graphics on this page, that will show you what the stats expect of a player in todays lineup.
Let’s jump into other baseball bets we’ll target this year…
MLB Player Prop Wagers – The Good, The Bad
One of my favorite prop bets in baseball is the “Get a hit” prop. Baseball players, on average, get 4 attempts per game at getting a hit. The top 4 batters in the lineup are more likely to get those 4 at-bats and many times could see 5 or more at-bats depending on the pace of the game, extra innings, etc. So when formulating your player props for hits in a game, try to stay at the top of the lineup!
Of those top 4 batters, the 4th batter (clean up), is typically the power hitter on the team who tends to have a knack for hitting home runs. Unfortunately, many times, this #4 hitter is usually high in strikeouts…so I tend to stay away from #4 hitters in a lineup. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule (Ohtani comes to mind – if he’s not banned from baseball this year for gambling).
Props I don’t like:
- Stolen Base – It’s hard enough to get a batter on base, let alone to also ask him to steal a base for you. Don’t throw your money away.
- Record A Hit is not the same as “To Hit a Single”, “To Hit a Double”, “To Hit a Triple”, “To Hit a HR”. Avoid these exact hit bets, as again, it’s hard enough to get a hit, not to mention predicting the type of a hit a player gets. Stick to “Record a Hit” when betting props.
- HR Props – Degenerates LOVE to bet the HR props and to also parlay them together (a double whammy no-no). If you’re someone who does this every year and will never stop, you might as well look at todays stats and decide which stadium and which player has the best chance of hitting a dinger tonight at Ball Park Pal, which currently has Chase Field in Arizona and Dodger Stadium as the most likely stadiums to produce a HR tomorrow on Opening Day 2024.
- First Pitch Results – Well, I just saw that FanDuel took away 1st inning, 1st pitch results which was super profitable for us last year. Yes, you can bet first pitch strike or ball on any inning….except this year, the first inning has been taken from us! This of course is because what we said all of last year. It’s a tradition for pitchers to throw a first pitch strike in this first inning of a game, and it’s an equal tradition for “most” lead off hitters to let the first pitch go by.
Props I DO LIKE!
- Pitcher strikeouts. The books have these limits set to a mathematical science but if you can parlay a couple of great pitchers and use their alternate strikeout limits you could find some good bets on a day to day basis.
- Alt Team Runs – In a single game bet, you can combine Alternate Team Run Totals with a couple of hot hitters from either team to combine for modest single game parlays. For instance, on opening day between the Yankees and the Astros you could bet for both teams to score over 1.5 runs, Altuve and Torres to get a hit of any kind all for +136. A respectable bet.
Other bets I like:
- Trolling Losers – Keep an eye on bad teams every single day. The Oakland A’s registered 112 losses last year…a 69% losing rate.
- Ride the winners! When a team is streaking, bet them until they lose! The Tampa Bay Rays had a 13 game winning streak last year and you better believe I bet them all the way up until their streak ended.
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